Since 1 May 2026 a tenant can take any Section 13 rent increase to the First-tier Tribunal (Property Chamber), and the tribunal can only confirm your figure or set a lower one. The first decisions show it will cut, sometimes below the rent already being paid, when your evidence is weak: in Manchester a landlord asked for £1,700 on a £1,650 flat and was left with £1,450.
The notice rules (once a year, two months, Form 4A, your figure as the ceiling) are in our Section 13 guide. This post is about what happens after the tenant applies: how tribunals actually decide market rent, and the evidence that wins.
How does a First-tier Tribunal rent increase challenge work?
The tribunal decides the open market rent, and if that is lower than your proposed rent, the lower figure becomes the rent. Under section 14ZB of the Housing Act 1988, as amended by the Renters' Rights Act 2025, the new rent is "the open-market rent, if lower than the proposed rent", and otherwise your proposed rent. Nothing stops it going below the current rent. These reforms commenced on 1 May 2026 for private assured tenancies (SI 2026/421).
The tenant must apply before the start date in your notice. As of 24 October 2026 the fee is £47 for notices served on or after 1 May 2026, and tenants can also challenge the starting rent in the first six months of a new tenancy (GOV.UK). Decisions can be made on paper, without an inspection or hearing.
The new rent starts on the date in your notice if the tribunal decides on or before it, or otherwise from the first rental period starting on or after the decision. If paying would cause the tenant undue hardship, the tribunal can delay the start by up to two months from the decision. In practice, tribunals rejected hardship claims that came without financial evidence.
Rent tribunal decisions 2026: what do they show so far?
They show tribunals cutting more often than confirming. We found 142 published decisions under the tribunal's new rent case code (MRA) on GOV.UK by 23 October 2026. We counted notices served on or after 1 May 2026, when the new rules began, plus one undated notice where the tribunal expressly applied the new rent ceiling (Wansbeck Road). This leaves 137 cases decided between 24 June 2026 and 7 October 2026; we left out three decisions on earlier notices, which run under the old rules, one where neither the service date nor the applicable rules could be established and one superseded by a rehearing. These are our own counts, not official tribunal statistics. Where a landlord replaced its notice and the tribunal decided the replacement, we used the replacement's figure as the proposal. Of the 125 where a rent was set:
| Outcome | Decisions | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Landlord's figure confirmed | 45 | 36% |
| Set between the old rent and the proposal | 54 | 43% |
| Rent kept at its existing level | 20 | 16% |
| Rent cut below its existing level | 6 | 5% |
The other 12 ended without a rent: 11 because the notice failed, mostly on dates, and one was withdrawn. In Sheffield the notice gave less than two months; in Islington it was on the old Form 4 with one month's notice. The median increase asked was 10.4%; the median allowed was 6.2%. For context, the ONS put England's average rent at £1,466 in September 2026, up 4.0% on a year earlier, and the North West was rising fastest at 5.7% (ONS, 21 October 2026).
There are no official figures yet on how many tenants are applying. The Ministry of Justice says the first full quarter of Renters' Rights Act data, July to September 2026, will be published in December (Tribunal Statistics Quarterly). Each decision binds only its own case, but together they show how valuers on the panels think.
Six cases, each confirmed from the published decision:
| Location | Property | Current rent | Proposed | Tenant's figure | Tribunal set | What decided it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester M1 | Two-bed sixth-floor flat, furnished | £1,650 | £1,700 | About £1,400 | £1,450 | Listings in the same and neighbouring buildings at £1,400 to £1,500 beat the landlord's general "central Manchester" evidence |
| Stratford E20 (Skylark Point) | Two-bed build-to-rent flat | £3,102.82 | £3,180 | £3,040 | £3,180 | Nine agreed lettings in the same development, April to June 2026, outweighed four asking rents |
| Harborne, Birmingham | Victorian terrace, attic counted as a fourth bedroom, EPC E | £1,770 | £2,050 | Not stated | £1,750 | £2,000 in good order, less £250 for the tenants' defect schedule and the EPC |
| Stockport | Two-bed duplex, unfurnished | £1,385 | £1,440 | £1,300 | £1,395 | A flat in the same building let agreed at £1,395; asking rents given limited weight |
| Gravesend | Two-bed riverside flat, 71 sq m | £1,395 | £1,420 | £1,300 | £1,420 | The landlord's price per square metre analysis and same-development listings; the tenant's one listing was on another street |
| Docklands E14 | Two-bed, two-bath flat, furnished | £2,700 | £3,100 | £2,700 | £2,700 | The landlord sent no representations, and the panel called the figure "unrealistically high" |
What market rent evidence do tribunals weigh?
Achieved rents on near-identical homes nearby, adjusted for the differences. Across the decisions, the same points come up:
- Achieved beats advertised. Skylark Point gave "greater weight" to agreed lettings "rather than asking rents", and GOV.UK tells tenants that actual agreed lettings are stronger evidence than Rightmove or Zoopla listings. Where same-building listings were the best evidence on file, as in Manchester, the panel used them.
- Same building, then same street. Manchester called the most useful comparables those "within the same building or in immediately neighbouring developments of similar age, character and specification". Stockport turned on one let in the same block.
- Floor area and layout over bedroom count. Gravesend accepted price per square metre where homes share a building and their size is known. In Harborne the landlord won the fourth bedroom with photographs and agent's sales particulars.
- Condition, with proof. Harborne took £250 off for a documented defect schedule. In Fulham a tenant's complaints earned no deduction without evidence of their effect on rent.
- What is included. Panels value the home "in good order" with white goods and curtains, then adjust for furniture, bathrooms, parking, outside space and any services in the rent.
- A shown valuation. Your current rent is not evidence: Harborne refused to value by reference to it. An unexplained figure carries little weight, and at Pierhead Lock the panel noted it "does not follow links".
Silence is costly. In at least seven of the 20 decisions that kept the old rent, the landlord sent no comparables or did not respond at all.
What should be in your evidence pack before you serve a Section 13 notice?
Enough for a valuer to reach your figure on paper alone. For a portfolio of one to ten properties, keep this per property:
- Three to six achieved rents from the last three to six months: same building or street first. Ask your agent for let-agreed figures, and use your own recent re-lets.
- For each comparable: address, date agreed, rent, bedrooms, bathrooms, floor area, parking, outside space, furnishing and condition, with the listing or tenancy page saved as a PDF.
- Your own property: floor area (the EPC register shows it), a floor plan, dated photos of every room, and a list of what you supply.
- A repairs log: each defect reported, when it was fixed, and the invoice, plus current gas, electrical and EPC certificates.
- A one-page valuation: comparables, adjustments, figure. If an agent values it, have them inspect and say so.
- A valid notice: Form 4A, a start date on the first day of a rental period, at least two months' notice and at least 52 weeks since the last increase (53 in some cases). Use the free rent increase date checker.
- Proof of service, and a diary note to return the tribunal's landlord reply form (MR2) on time.
Worked example: how do you build a defensible figure?
Use adjusted achieved rents, not your target. This is an illustration with invented figures. You let a two-bed flat of 62 sq m at £1,200 a month and want £1,260 (5%). You find three lettings agreed in the last three months:
| Comparable | Agreed rent | Adjustment | Adjusted rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Same building, 65 sq m, same condition | £1,300 | Size: £20.00 per sq m x 62 sq m | £1,240 |
| Next street, 60 sq m, older kitchen | £1,200 | Size: £20.00 per sq m x 62 sq m, then +£25 for your newer kitchen | £1,265 |
| Same development, 62 sq m, freshly redecorated | £1,275 | Less £25 for your tired decoration | £1,250 |
The adjusted range is £1,240 to £1,265 and the average £1,251.67. Serve at £1,250 and every comparable sits within £15 of it. At £1,260 you are above the average, so be ready to show what the comparables lack.
Now the downside. If you serve at £1,260 with no pack and the tenant brings cheaper listings, a tribunal setting £1,150 costs you:
| Monthly | Over 12 months | |
|---|---|---|
| Increase you lose (£1,260 minus £1,200) | £60 | £720 |
| Cut below the current rent (£1,200 minus £1,150) | £50 | £600 |
| Total against your proposal | £110 | £1,320 |
Serving at £1,250 with the pack and having it confirmed would bring in £600 more than today's rent over the year.
Can you avoid a tribunal at all?
Often, yes: before the start date you and the tenant can agree a rent lower than your proposal, or agree no increase (section 13(4)); put it in writing. Showing the tenant your comparables early is the cheapest way to settle. If it still goes in, respond to every tribunal direction on time and send documents as attachments.
How does Padlord help with rent reviews?
It keeps the records a tribunal asks for. Each rent change goes on the property's timeline, so you have a dated rent history and the date the rent was last set. A rent review prompt flags a sitting tenant whose rent has not changed for over 12 months, and the "Below local market" check compares your rent with the ONS average for the council area and type of home. That benchmark is a reason to look, not tribunal evidence: you still need real comparables. You can attach the notice and your evidence pack to the rent change itself. Market context is in our UK rents update, and the wider reforms in the Renters' Rights Act timeline.
This covers England only; Wales and Scotland have their own rent rules.
General information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Sources and fees checked on 24 October 2026; the tribunal counts are our own.
